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June 2018 - Entrepreneurial dynamism reflected in the Economic overview

Brussels Institute for Statistics and Analysis (BISA) - In the spotlight - Entrepreneurial dynamism in the Brussels-Capital Region.

Entrepreneurial dynamism in the Brussels-Capital Region (January 2015 to January 2018)
 

Source: Statbel, calculations by BISA

Entrepreneurial dynamism?

The entrepreneurial dynamism indicator summarises information about the trend in enterprise births and deaths relative to the number of active companies. A positive indicator value means that the number of new companies exceeds the number of businesses that cease trading. Broadly speaking, a high level of entrepreneurial dynamism is considered positive from an economic perspective because it creates employment, boosts productivity and strengthens economic growth.

How? This indicator is constructed from data on the monthly trend in Brussels businesses, using the following formula:


 

Who? Only businesses liable for VAT registered with the Crossroads Bank for Enterprises (CBE) that have their registered office in the Brussels-Capital Region are taken into account for the purpose of calculating entrepreneurial dynamism in Brussels.


From the unadjusted series to the analysed series

The graph shows the trend in entrepreneurial dynamism in Brussels (from January 2015 to January 2018). It is extracted from a longer series, covering January 2007 to January 2018. In the Cyclical overview, entrepreneurial dynamism is smoothed by quarter. This smoothing attenuates the very short-term variations in the series and presents a medium-term view of the dynamism. In concrete terms, the value of the January 2018 Overview indicator corresponds to the indicators of November 2017, December 2017 and January 2018.

The above graph shows two curves:

  • The seasonally adjusted series: the long quarterly series was seasonally adjusted to dispense with any variations caused by factors that are purely seasonal in nature. For instance, fewer businesses tend to be created at the end of each quarter of the calendar year than at the beginning of this period but only on account of the seasonal effects that must be offset.
  • The long-term trend: is extracted on the basis of the seasonally adjusted series and indicates the course and overall behaviour of the series over the long term.


The Brussels entrepreneurial environment is more vibrant than during the previous quarter

The Economic overview measures the trends in entrepreneurial dynamism based on the seasonally adjusted series. Like others, it shows the evolution of this indicator by means of pictograms.

Entrepreneurial dynamism is on the rise: the arrow points upwards. The indicator value calculated in January 2018 (0.40 %) was compared against the indicator value calculated in October 2017 (0.35 %). Enterprise births and deaths have increased relative to the previous quarter but, since more businesses were created, the indicator is on an upward path.

A moderate increase: the arrow is blank. To establish its significance, the variation in the indicator is compared against the series’ median series.

The increase is considered positive from an economic perspective: the arrow is green.

Conversely, a strong positive indicator, such as the number of job seekers, would be represented by a red shaded arrow pointing upwards.


The Brussels entrepreneurial environment is performing better than estimated by the long-term trend forecasts

The seasonally adjusted series is compared against the long-term trend. The pictogram below, extract from the Economic overview, illustrates this comparison.

The latest value of entrepreneurial dynamism is slightly higher than the long-term forecasts: the Economic overview pictogram shows that it is one point above and close to the long-term trend. According to the long-term trend, the January 2018 value of the seasonally adjusted series (0.40 %) exceeds what would be its average value (0.37 %).

Greater entrepreneurial dynamism is regarded as positive from an economic perspective: when the entrepreneurial dynamism indicator exceeds the trend, the deviation from the trend is regarded as positive and depicted in green while it would be depicted in red if the deviation from the trend was regarded as negative.

Conversely, if an indicator such as the number of job seekers was to exceed the trend, it would be regarded as negative, in which case the colours would be inversed.
 

 Further details?

Keen to find out more about the recent trend in economic activity in Brussels? Check out the April 2018 Economic overview! (FR)